Experts have told the BBC that the current Covid outbreak in China is “unlikely” to impact India, but they have urged people to be careful and wear masks.
India has stepped up surveillance after a spike in cases in neighbouring China.
People from China and four other Asian countries must now produce a negative Covid-19 test report before entering India.
On Tuesday, drills were held to test whether hospitals could handle a surge.
According to government data, India has only around 3,400 active coronavirus cases. But reports of the outbreak in China and memories of two deadly waves of Covid in 2020 and 2021 in India have scared many people.
But experts say there is no cause for concern at this time.
“The spike in infections in China is in line with predictions. Cases will increase if you have a susceptible population that is not exposed to the virus. Nothing has changed for the rest of the world, including India,” says epidemiologist Dr Chandrakant Lahariya. and health systems specialist.
China has been grappling with a rush of Covid cases after moving away from its so-called zero-Covid approach, which imposed strict lockdowns, quarantine and border closures. The country is now trying to step up vaccinations for its vulnerable elderly population as the surge in cases strains health systems.
The outbreak has also led some experts to doubt that the main vaccines used in China – Sinovac and Sinopharm – can provide long-term immunity.
“People get infected because BF.7 [the Omicron sub-variant that is reported to be causing the outbreak in China] is highly contagious and escapes any previous immunity. If you don’t have immunity, you get more diseases that will affect older people and immunocompromised populations,” says virologist Dr. Jacob John.
Over the past few months, India has reported four cases of Covid-19 caused by BF.7 – all patients have recovered, according to health officials.
“Covid is still around; people are still getting infected and being admitted to hospitals. So it’s not that we’re Covid-free, but it’s become like another upper respiratory infection, like the flu,” says epidemiologist Dr Lalit Kant.
India’s low number of cases can largely be attributed to the immunity Indians have acquired over the past three years.
Dr A Fathahudeen, a leading critical care expert who has treated thousands of Covid patients, says India’s ‘hybrid immunity wall’ against Covid-19 is ‘satisfactory’ as most people have either taken two doses of the vaccine or acquired natural immunity. to contract the disease earlier.
He also points out that the vaccines used in India are “more effective than those used in China”.
India has administered more than 2.2 billion doses of the Covid vaccine, including the two doses and the booster, which India calls a “precautionary dose”.
He says people should take the booster dose if they haven’t already – only about 27% of the population have received it so far.
It’s a call that other experts largely agree with.
“Over time, the antibody level decreases. So a third injection is always beneficial and will increase the antibody level,” says Dr Lahariya, adding that it’s good for people over 60.
“Among the 18-59 age group, those who are at high risk may receive reminders. For others, it’s a personal call,” he adds.
Experts also agree with the government’s decision to step up genome sequencing, allowing scientists to identify new strains.
“The current testing strategy of randomly sequencing the genome of 2% of international travellers is sufficient to detect any new variants,” says Dr Fathahudeen.
Dr John says the best mantra for the government and ordinary people to follow is “expect the best and prepare for the worst”.
“Get into the habit of wearing masks in crowded places – while watching a football or cricket match, or on a crowded bus or train,” he says, adding that he recommends creating “behavioural changes sustainable and long term.
India relaxed its mask-wearing rules earlier this year after infection levels fell, and it is now common to see people in crowded areas without any precautions.
The bottom line is “be careful, wear a mask and watch the news,” says Dr John.
Dr Fathahudeen agrees, saying unnecessary crowding should be discouraged and people should wear masks if large gatherings can’t be avoided.