Thailand has dissolved parliament, ahead of general elections scheduled for early May.
Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha’s new United Thai National Party will face opposition mainly from the Pheu Thai party, led by Paetongtarn, daughter of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
Thaksin, a billionaire, was ousted in a military coup in 2006.
Paetongtarn, 36, has been leading Prayuth in opinion polls for months.
The date of the election has not been set, but it must take place within 60 days of the dissolution. But the campaign of dozens of parties is already underway. The sidewalks in Bangkok disappeared after countless party posters made all kinds of promises to voters.
In the end, though, this election is really about one thing:
Can the Pheu Thai Party win by a big enough margin to secure power back? Nearly every poll predicts it will again be the biggest party, as it has been in every election in the past 22 years, based on strong loyalty to Mr Thaksin in the north and northeast.
Some believe he could even win an absolute majority of seats in the lower house. But that may not be enough, given the lingering hostility towards him and his allies from the Tory Royalists and the army.
In the past, court rulings or military coups have prevented three Thaksin-backed governments, including one led by his sister Yingluck, from completing their terms of office. .
Prayut, a retired general, has been in power since leading a coup against Yingluck’s government.
Thaksin has lived in exile for 15 years, avoiding criminal prosecution, even as many of his aides are now banned from politics.
Yet here he is, hovering over this election like a ghost, his daughter the newest member of the Shinawatra family to lead the party. Speaking at an event to introduce Pheu Thai candidates on Friday, Ms. Paetongtarn said she was confident to win the election with a landslide victory.
After the recent coup, the military decided to end the Thaksin issue completely by rewriting the constitution to ensure that his party could not take power. They appointed 250 senators, most of whom are said to remain loyal to Generals Prayuth and Prawit Wongsuwan, who led the latest coup.
With the backing of senators and after much campaigning, Pheu Thai was ousted from power in the final elections of 2019. The two generals have since led an unlikely conservative coalition. pause. Now, however, each person leads his or her own party, in danger of splitting the Conservative vote.
Under the military-drafted constitution, senators can still vote once more on the choice of the next prime minister. With their backing, the two generals could still form a government even if the Pheu Thai party had a majority.
But senators cannot pass legislation or a budget, and any administration that depends on their support cannot function. If Pheu Thai wins more than 200 of the 500 seats in the contest, it will be difficult if not impossible to exclude them from the next government. This being Thailand, no one can rule out another non-parliamentary movement against the party; This time it is not a coup, but possibly another dissolution of the party by trusted conservative courts.